WARN Act Layoffs in South Carolina

In-Depth Analysis: Layoffs in South Carolina

# WARN Firehose Economic Analysis: South Carolina Layoff Landscape

Executive Summary: Scale and Trajectory

South Carolina has recorded 778 Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act filings affecting 713,208 workers across the available dataset—a substantial employment shock concentrated almost entirely in a single catastrophic year. The data tells a story dominated by one overwhelming event: the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which generated 148 notices displacing 646,909 workers, representing 90.7 percent of all layoffs in the historical record.

Yet this obscures a more granular reality. Stripping away the 2020 pandemic anomaly, South Carolina has averaged roughly 48 notices annually affecting approximately 4,700 workers—a baseline consistent with a state economy undergoing ordinary structural adjustment. The current trajectory, however, shows warning signs. After a post-pandemic dip in 2021 (32 notices), layoff activity has remained elevated, with 2022–2024 averaging 61 notices per year. The most recent data from 2025 (48 notices, 4,660 workers) and 2026 year-to-date (21 notices, 1,390 workers through April) suggest layoff velocity may be stabilizing but remains above pre-pandemic equilibrium. The state's current jobless claims—2,782 initial claims for the week ending April 4, 2026—remain 26.4 percent below year-ago levels, indicating that broader labor market weakness is not yet acute, though the 4-week trend upward of 62.7 percent warrants monitoring.

Industry Analysis: Manufacturing's Persistent Dominance and Sectoral Vulnerability

Manufacturing dominates South Carolina's WARN landscape with overwhelming force: 270 notices affecting 33,197 workers constitute 34.7 percent of all notices and 4.7 percent of affected workers. The extraordinarily high worker-per-notice ratio (123 workers per notice in manufacturing versus 915 workers per notice overall) reflects large-scale industrial closures and consolidations rather than gradual workforce reductions.

The persistence of manufacturing layoffs reveals deep structural vulnerabilities in the sector. CB&I Project Services Group filed seven notices displacing 1,403 workers, primarily in fabrication and engineering services tied to industrial project cycles and capital spending. Century Aluminum has filed four notices affecting 1,303 workers, facing secular headwinds from rising energy costs, competitive Chinese production, and weak global demand in automotive and packaging—sectors driving aluminum consumption. Mohawk Industries, a carpet and flooring manufacturer, filed five notices affecting 539 workers, navigating the dual pressures of residential construction cycles and competition from cheaper imports. WestRock, a paper and packaging firm, filed four notices affecting 144 workers amid structural decline in corrugated box demand as e-commerce logistics consolidate facilities.

The second-tier economic driver comes from Accommodation & Food Services (57 notices, 9,900 workers) and Transportation (57 notices, 7,222 workers). Sodexo, a contract food services provider, filed 10 notices affecting 1,414 workers, reflecting post-pandemic normalization in corporate and institutional dining volume—particularly in education and business services where demand remains suppressed relative to 2019 levels. Hostess Brands filed nine notices affecting only 75 workers despite numerous layoff events, indicating multiple small efficiency reductions rather than a single crisis event. The Transportation sector's 7,222 displaced workers signal stress in warehousing, logistics, and supply chain services—possibly reflecting automation and consolidation following the pandemic-era surge in e-commerce fulfillment demands.

Professional Services (48 notices, 7,761 workers), Information & Technology (64 notices, 4,484 workers), and Healthcare (57 notices, 3,486 workers) reveal white-collar and knowledge-economy fragility. Wells Fargo, headquartered in Charlotte but with substantial South Carolina operations, filed 11 notices affecting 1,323 workers—reflecting the bank's ongoing digital transformation, regulatory compliance restructuring, and customer service consolidation. Prisma Health, South Carolina's largest healthcare system, filed nine notices affecting 689 workers, possibly driven by operational consolidation and efficiency pressures following merger integration.

The contrast between high-notice healthcare filings (57) and relatively modest worker displacement (3,486) suggests healthcare layoffs are distributed, incremental, and fragmented across multiple small facilities rather than concentrated facility closures. This reflects healthcare's labor-intensive service model and regulatory constraints on sudden workforce reductions.

Geographic Concentration: Columbia's Outsized Impact and Regional Inequality

The geographic data reveals severe concentration risk. Columbia recorded 59 notices displacing 629,897 workers—representing 88.3 percent of Columbia's reported displacement and 88.4 percent of the entire state's displaced workers. This statistical anomaly almost certainly reflects a single massive closure or consolidation event inadequately disaggregated in the available data, likely a major distribution center, call center, or corporate facility. The figure warrants skepticism and suggests data cleaning is necessary for accurate geographic analysis.

Setting Columbia aside, Greenville and Charleston emerge as secondary layoff hotspots. Greenville recorded 83 notices affecting 7,011 workers (84 workers per notice), indicating smaller distributed closures consistent with its diversified manufacturing and services base. Charleston recorded 71 notices affecting 10,118 workers (143 workers per notice), reflecting its role as a major port, logistics hub, and tourism center. The Charleston area's concentration suggests vulnerability to trade disruptions, port automation, and tourism demand volatility.

The Upstate corridor—Greenville, Spartanburg (32 notices, 5,385 workers), and Fort Mill (27 notices, 2,193 workers)—collectively accounts for 142 notices and 14,589 workers. This region's traditional textile, automotive, and manufacturing economy continues shedding employment despite decades of economic development efforts. Aiken (24 notices, 3,215 workers) and Goose Creek (19 notices, 2,490 workers), both anchored by nuclear and petrochemical facilities, show vulnerability to energy sector cycles and industrial consolidation.

Regional inequality is embedded in these patterns. Coastal and urban centers (Charleston, Greenville, Columbia) possess greater diversification and resilience potential, while industrial towns dependent on legacy manufacturing (Spartanburg, Gaffney with 14 notices and 1,684 workers) face structural employment decline with limited alternative high-wage employment.

Major Employers: Consolidation, Automation, and Strategic Retrenchment

The top 25 employers filing WARN notices reveal an economy dominated by large corporations executing strategic workforce reductions rather than operating in crisis mode. Wells Fargo (11 notices, 1,323 workers) exemplifies financial services digital transformation. The bank has systematically reduced branch networks, consolidated back-office operations, and shifted customer service to automated channels and offshore centers. Multiple WARN filings suggest this is not one-time restructuring but ongoing operational recalibration.

Sodexo (10 notices, 1,414 workers) and Aramark (3 notices, 443 workers) represent contract services providers navigating post-pandemic normalization. Corporate dining, university food services, and institutional catering have not recovered to 2019 volumes as hybrid work and delayed return-to-office strategies persist. These companies operate on thin margins and reduce headcount rapidly in response to customer demand shocks.

Prisma Health (9 notices, 689 workers), South Carolina's healthcare heavyweight, reflects healthcare sector restructuring and operational consolidation. Hospital systems nationwide have reduced administrative staffing, consolidated service lines, and shifted care toward outpatient and primary care settings. The multiple WARN notices suggest ongoing transformation rather than acute crisis.

CB&I Project Services Group (7 notices, 1,403 workers) and Cardinal Health (7 notices, 326 workers) operate in capital-intensive industrial services and pharmaceutical distribution, respectively. CB&I's workforce reductions correlate with the broader contraction in offshore oil and gas exploration following the 2014–2016 energy commodity collapse and subsequent shift toward renewable energy investment. Cardinal Health faces margin pressure from pharmaceutical pricing pressures and healthcare consolidation.

Tupperware (5 notices, 309 workers), Peak Workforce Solutions (5 notices, 195 workers), and Warehouse Services (5 notices, 699 workers) represent labor-intensive operations vulnerable to automation and outsourcing. Tupperware has faced secular decline in direct sales as consumer preferences shift toward digital commerce. Peak Workforce Solutions and Warehouse Services operate in temporary staffing and logistics—sectors experiencing significant automation investment and consolidation.

Mohawk Industries (5 notices, 539 workers) and Shaw Industries Group (3 notices, 565 workers) represent residential flooring manufacturers facing structural headwinds: a maturing market, import competition, consolidation in home improvement retail, and automation in production.

The absence of technology giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta from the list—despite significant South Carolina operations—suggests the tech sector's South Carolina presence remains smaller than in coastal metros. However, Charter Communications (5 notices, 380 workers) reflects telecom sector automation and competitive pressure from wireless and broadband technologies.

Historical Trends: The 2020 Inflection and Subsequent Stabilization

The year-by-year breakdown reveals a state economy fundamentally disrupted by a single event. From 2012–2019, South Carolina recorded 346 notices affecting 42,881 workers, averaging 38.4 notices and 4,764 workers annually—consistent with baseline structural adjustment in a developed regional economy. The highest pre-pandemic year was 2012 (129 notices, 5,541 workers), likely reflecting residual Great Recession adjustments and manufacturing consolidation.

The 2020 pandemic catastrophe generated 148 notices and 646,909 workers—a 3.8x increase in notices and a 135x increase in affected workers. This historical aberration drove the overall aggregate figures upward dramatically.

Post-pandemic recovery has been uneven. After the sharp 2021 rebound (32 notices, 4,305 workers), layoff activity re-accelerated: 2022 (51 notices, 6,341 workers), 2023 (60 notices, 5,214 workers), and 2024 (71 notices, 5,888 notices). This suggests ongoing structural adjustment continues as companies complete pandemic-era hiring reversals and execute longer-term digital transformation initiatives. The 2025 data (48 notices, 4,660 workers) and 2026 partial-year data show slight deceleration, though the year is incomplete.

The implications are ambiguous. Elevated post-2021 layoffs could indicate: (1) delayed corporate restructuring leveraging pandemic cover; (2) technology and automation investments reducing labor requirements; (3) supply chain normalization eliminating temporary pandemic hiring; or (4) the beginning of a new economic contraction as cumulative effects of higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and demand weakness work through the economy.

Economic Context: South Carolina's Sectoral Profile and WARN Significance

South Carolina's economy remains anchored in manufacturing, logistics, and tourism—precisely the sectors generating the highest WARN activity. The state's per-capita GDP ranks 39th nationally, with wages below the national average. Manufacturing employment, though declining, still represents approximately 12–13 percent of state employment versus 8–9 percent nationally, making the sector's vulnerability to automation and globalization disproportionately consequential.

The state's largest employers reflect this profile: healthcare systems (Prisma Health, MUSC), manufacturing (Michelin, Boeing, Bosch), distribution (Amazon, Walmart, Target), and tourism. The WARN data directly reflects employment volatility in these core sectors.

Notably, information technology and professional services show measurable WARN activity (112 combined notices, 12,245 workers), suggesting South Carolina's growing tech economy contains fragility. While the state has developed a modest tech corridor centered on Clemson University and Charleston, this base remains underdiversified and vulnerable to sector-wide consolidation or economic downturn.

H-1B Utilization and the Skilled Labor Paradox

South Carolina has certified 16,892 H-1B and Labor Condition Application (LCA) petitions from 3,337 unique employers, with an average salary of $122,715. The top occupations are technology-focused: Computer Systems Analysts (947 petitions), Software Developers (815 petitions), and Computer Programmers (761 petitions). The top employers are educational institutions (Clemson University with 408 petitions, Medical University of South Carolina with 265 petitions) and technology consulting firms (CapGemini America with 396 petitions, Wipro Limited with 285 petitions).

The H-1B approval rate is exceptionally high at 89.7 percent (5,632 approved, 646 denied), indicating that South Carolina's petitions meet USCIS standards and market tests with minimal friction. This suggests genuine labor shortages in technical occupations.

The apparent paradox emerges when cross-referenced with WARN filings: Wells Fargo (employing H-1B workers in IT roles) simultaneously filed 11 WARN notices. Charter Communications (which likely sponsors H-1B technology workers) filed five WARN notices. This pattern suggests large corporations are simultaneously reducing headcount in certain roles while filing H-1B petitions for specialized positions—consistent with skill-specific labor demand rather than general workforce reductions. They are shedding lower-skilled customer service and administrative positions while recruiting advanced technical talent.

CapGemini America, a management consulting and IT services firm, filed 396 H-1B petitions while not appearing prominently in WARN filings, indicating the firm is recruiting rather than reducing. This contrasts with traditional manufacturers and financial institutions executing broad-based layoffs.

The data suggests South Carolina's knowledge economy is bifurcating: selective hiring in technical specializations alongside systematic reduction in routine administrative and operational roles. This pattern typically precedes wage stagnation or decline for mid-skill workers and growing income inequality within the state.

Outlook: Monitoring Economic Fragility and Workforce Vulnerability

Looking forward, several indicators warrant close attention. South Carolina's jobless claims have risen 62.7 percent over the past four weeks (1,710 to 2,782), reversing months of improvement and suggesting emerging labor market weakness. While year-over-year claims remain down 26.4 percent, this monthly deterioration could signal the beginning of a demand shock working through the economy.

Manufacturing layoffs will likely remain elevated given structural headwinds: ongoing automation, energy cost pressures, and international competition. The large concentration of manufacturing employment (270 notices, 33,197 workers) means any recession would likely generate disproportionate manufacturing job losses.

The geographic concentration of layoff risk in specific regions—Greenville, Spartanburg, and Aiken—means that localized labor market disruption could be severe even if state-level unemployment remains moderate. These regions lack the economic diversification to rapidly absorb large employment shocks.

Corporate bankruptcies matched to WARN data, including QVC Rocky Mount and QVC St. Lucie filings in April 2026, signal increasing financial distress in retail and e-commerce fulfillment sectors. Wells Fargo and Sodexo, both identified as elevated-risk companies with multiple WARN notices, bear monitoring for accelerating distress.

The contrast between H-1B hiring in technical roles and WARN layoffs in operational roles suggests skills mismatch will intensify. Workers displaced from administrative, customer service, and manufacturing roles face significant retraining costs with uncertain employment prospects, while unfilled technical positions will likely drive wage pressures in IT and specialized engineering roles.

South Carolina's relatively low unemployment rate (4.9 percent in January 2026) provides workers with some hiring optionality, but this advantage will erode rapidly if layoff velocity accelerates. The state's labor market remains vulnerable to demand shocks given its concentration in cyclical industries and limited diversification in recession-resistant services. Policymakers and economic development agencies should prepare contingency workforce retraining programs and monitor sector-specific indicators in manufacturing, logistics, and hospitality closely through the remainder of 2026.